Market Pulse

October was another winning month for markets.  The S&P 500 added 2.3%, the Dow rose 2.5% and the Nasdaq jumped 4.7%.  It’s been a banner stretch for stocks which have been buoyed by the ongoing artificial intelligence trade, easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, not to mention strong corporate earnings. 

When you combine that kind of momentum with the fact that November has historically been the strongest month for the S&P 500, typically rising 1.8%, it appears like the markets move higher could continue through year end. (Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac)

But, quite frankly, there is no telling how long the current stock market dynamics will persist. Reality is, the markets current run has been taking place amid a U.S. government shutdown that paused key economic data, and now includes additional uncertainty around President Trump’s tariffs. 

Yes, all the major indexes are hovering near record levels, yet, plenty of professionals and investors are worried the market not only looks overpriced, but also highly concentrated around a few major tech companies, and therefore feels disconnected from the rest of the economy. 

It’s being referred to as a “K-shaped” or “two-tier” economy because of the divergence that the data shows in consumers spending behaviors.  Essentially, wealthier Americans are feeling richer thanks to gains in the markets and thus spending more.  While lower-income Americans are significantly paring back because of worries about job security and rising costs of living including health care.

Overall, when we have divergent data and an economy that is sending mixed signals, it can feel similar to driving in foggy conditions. As you know, fog makes it hard to see things like other vehicles, pedestrians, and road signs.  It’s harder to accurately judge distance, and moisture from it can make the road surface wet and slick. 

So, drivers tend to slow down, leave extra space in between other cars to improve reaction time… and even though it seems like using your lights on high beams would help, we all know that the opposite is true.

As a result, our goal is to continue to take our foot off the AI gas pedal by trimming small portions of positions in “high beam” companies like Nvidia and Tiawan Semiconductor for example. Additionally, we plan to create more distance for reaction time and better traction by re-allocating those funds to both money market as well as more consumer defensive or “low-beam” companies like Proctor & Gamble and Costco.

Going forward, the key with the re-allocations is to play into the divergent consumer by focusing more on companies that have products and services that appeal to both high-end and low-income consumers.

Thankful or Grateful

There it was, the chance to fill a weeknight entertainment void by opting to watch the timeless classic,  A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving. This beloved special premiered on CBS on November 20, 1973 and quickly became a cherished piece of Americana.  

On the surface, the show feels like the perfect way to slide into the season of “Giving Thanks.” But just moments after starting the show, my Charlie Brown brain got to thinking:  Is feeling thankful the same as being grateful? Good grief.               

It turns out that the words are similar, but there are important differences.  A quick web search found that:

Thankfulness is usually more reactive and outwardly or externally directed.  Usually sparked by an event, a person, or gift.

Gratitude, on the other hand, feels deeper, like a sustained, inward awareness of life’s goodness, especially when things
aren’t always going our way. It’s less about a reaction and more about a mindset or a practice.

The interesting opportunity here is that while Charlie Brown and the Peanuts Gang served as the initial foundation for this article, the reality is, gratitude or thankfulness shouldn’t just be a single annual moment like Thanksgiving.  It can and should serve as  a cycle or process that we engage in and reflect upon at various points of a given year.

By doing so, we can recognize (and appreciate) that we will experience different seasons of gratitude as we move through life, and that they won’t always look or feel the same.

Some seasons are bright and abundant. Others are quiet, subtle, and even challenging. While other seasons may feel too long and others too short. Wherever you may be, considering pausing for a moment to take notice of the season you’re in with the following questions: 

1. What feels abundant in your life in this season?
    Think of the people, routines, experiences, or simple moments that bring ease or joy.

2. What feels quieter or more challenging right now?
    Where is gratitude harder to access—and what might those areas be teaching you?

3. What small, often unnoticed things are you grateful or thankful for?
     The everyday comforts, reliable rhythms, or quiet supports that are easy to overlook.

4. Who has played a meaningful role for you recently?
    Consider the people who offered encouragement, companionship, or inspiration.

As you might expect, taking the time for “grateful reflection” like this teaches us that the world sees us, supports us, and nurtures us. 

So, as you get ready to give thanks for pumpkin pie and stocking stuffers, take a deeper, more reflective breath and be grateful for the wonders in your day, which on average, outweigh the chaos. React with Thankfulness. Breath deep with Gratitude. 

…And let’s hope the Lions (or your favorite football team) don’t need Chuck to kick the game winning field goal, especially if Lucy is the holder.